Another night of debating is behind us and man was it a big one! I tweeted during the break that this felt like the first real debate of the race and I stand by that. Let’s get into it!
1 — Mayor Pete Buttigieg
Mayor Pete had a difficult task tonight. The smaller stage was for many voters a chance to really hear from these candidates so he had to state his positions strongly. At the same time he is the current leader in Iowa and was going to be a target who would have to fend off attacks on all sides. He had a very good exchange when attacked by Senator Warren and gave a strong answer to a big swing question on reparations. He did not do so well scrapping with Senator Klobuchar on experience. I thought for sure he was going to mention the attack she made before the last debate but instead he went for an awkward angle on the first amendment and lost his temper a bit. Overall he comported himself well and I think he gave as good as he got. Expect a bump for him but not a big one. As always in the interest of full disclosure I will say that I’ve consulted for the Mayor’s campaign and am endorsing him in this primary for what that’s worth.
2 — Senator Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders has had a rough road this primary season. Before the last debate he was losing ground to Senator Warren and had just had a heart attack. Since then he has hit harder than ever. His fundraising remains strong, his debate performances have been some of his strongest ever, and his polling has rebounded and then some. He was solidly in command tonight and as always had the best jokes. I think you can expect to see his numbers go up a bit directly at Warren’s expense.
3 — Andrew Yang
Cinderella story Andrew Yang is still here when no one thought he would be. I would have put him higher if he hadn’t showed the same problem he’s always had making himself heard in these debates. He is without a doubt the most innovative candidate since the 2016 rise of Bernie Sanders and his answers are always rock solid when he gets to speak (he gets more applause per answer than anyone else) but he has to speak more. I think Andrew Yang is here to stay and anyone who counts him out after this does so at their own peril. The early voting states may not be kind to him but if he can keep debating until Super Tuesday he could make a strong showing.
4 — Senator Amy Klobuchar
I’ve said after almost every debate that Amy Klobuchar gives great policy answers but can’t figure out how to make them and I’m saying it again tonight. She had her strongest showing yet, notably in an exchange with Mayor Pete but she should be way higher on this list. Her answers seem stilted and she seems to get befuddled and ramble through them. If she wants to be seen as someone who can debate the president and win I think she should look to Senator Harris’s final debate performance. The happy, confident warrior stance while a trope in presidential politics has never been ineffective. I’m not sure she moves the needle much tonight but her staying power and polling has been surprising to many pundits including me.
5 — Senator Elizabeth Warren
Senator Warren has been a dominant figure in every debate so far. Tonight I believe that streak ended. Although she had the biggest sound bite of the night with “I’d also be the youngest woman ever inaugurated”, the senator struggled in her exchange with Mayor Pete and seemed genuinely caught off guard when he pointed out that she is in fact a millionaire and had funded part of her campaign with large donor event money from her congressional warchest. She also seemed to obfuscate more than she has in the past. The senator seems to be trying to temper some of her more progressive policy proposals without watering them down. The result was some very obtuse answers that didn’t serve her well. I think she may lose some polling ground to Senator Sanders in the coming weeks.
6 — Vice President Joe Biden
Me after hour 1: Man it’s not a huge bar but Biden is having his best night ever.
Me after Hour 2: Jesus christ did Joe Biden kinda just make fun of a kid with a stutter?
The Vice President needed a big night more than ever with the impeachment press constantly casting a shadow on him. He in so many ways did and then as always blew it with an epic gaffe on the one yard line. I think the Iowa caucus is going to be the day you start to see the Biden campaign sink if the impeachment trial doesn’t sink him first.
7— Tom Steyer
Fine I’ll talk about Tom Steyer, he debated. If you want to call it that… There whatever. I hope he stops spending his money on campaign ads and starts spending it on ads to help vulnerable congressional democrats and unseating the majority leader very soon.
Honorable Mention — Senator Cory Booker
I really feel like Senator Booker got a bit shafted being left out tonight. His strength in statewide polls and many pundits think that he may have picked up steam in Iowa once Senator Harris left the race. I’d be interested to see his trajectory after tonight.
That’s it for me until next debate in the meantime follow me everywhere at @iammikegio. Happy holidays!