The fourth Democratic Presidential debate has concluded and there were some big moments. Let’s break down who scored big and who fell flat!
1 - Andrew Yang
Yup I said it. Andrew Yang was spectacular tonight. He gave earnestly personal answers and told voters how his conversations with them shaped those answers. While other candidates went for each other’s throats he pressed his opponents but kept it clean. He didn’t have as much speaking time as some of the other big names but he maximized every one. Yang always does very well in the spin rooms where one could argue debates are really won and he kept that up tonight. He’s already qualified for the next debate and I think the Yang Gang is going to have a bunch more members after tonight. Expect a bump for him as people drop out.
2 - Sen Cory Booker
Speaking of people who kept it clean Cory Booker felt like a hall monitor as much as a candidate tonight. He spent a great deal of time articulating a unifying message that I think really resonates with voters and landed some great answers at the same time. His big debate failing in my opinion was spending too much time talking about unity and past accomplishments and not nearly enough laying out clear policy for the future. Like Yang he didn’t get as much time as the top tier names but when he did speak he sounded very presidential and he’s the only candidate I can say that about tonight. He’s also qualified for November so let’s see if he keeps this strategy up 3 times in a row. He’ll see a small polling bump as well.
3 - Sen Bernie Sanders
Senator Sanders came into this debate in the wake of a heart attack and a sizable drop in the polls. Elizabeth Warren has been surging, largely at his expense and he needed to prove he could stand up and fight. He came through with one of his best debate performances to date. Bernie seemed more at ease, confident, and commanding than we’ve ever seen him in this race. He mostly played his greatest hits but make no mistake, Bernie was down but he is absolutely not out. He also shouted out a rally in Queens NY that will feature a special guest. That guest will be Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and rumor has it she will be joined by Rep Ilhan Omar and Rep Rashida Tlaib (The Squad minus Rep Ayanna Pressley) and that all 3 will be endorsing him. While I don’t approve of them endorsing anyone this early it’s hard to underestimate how big this could be for Bernie. Young progressives had been moving to Warren and endorsements from the recent heroes of the young progressive movement could give him a huge push against her.
4 - Sen Elizabeth Warren
There had been a lot of talk coming into this about some polls having Elizabeth Warren in a tie with Biden. Many pundits talked about her being the new frontrunner in this race and if the candidates’ behavior tonight is any indication they were right. Senator Warren took fire from all directions and dealt with it very well. She stumbled slightly on specifics for healthcare which many of her opponents went after her for but overall a strong showing for the Senator. A statement about Senator Warren that has stuck with me is “she speaks so well because she listens so well” and tonight hearing how she related voter stories to her policies in a way that shows the connection she felt with them really drives that home. I don’t think tonight moves her numbers in any meaningful way but she certainly didn’t lose ground.
5 - Mayor Pete Buttigieg
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg was far more aggressive than he’s been in any past debate and I’m not sure it worked for him. He went after Senator Warren on paying for “medicare for all” and got into a heated exchange with Beto O’Rourke on gun laws. He had a great exchange with Beto but seemed uncomfortable when going after Warren and waved at a chance to come down hard on Tulsi Gabbard about Syria. That said, he did well in the spin room and so far has gained much of his strength from his campaign ground game and huge fundraising rather than debates. The race is going to narrow slightly after tonight and his numbers will benefit from that a bit. He has qualified for November and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see yet another style shift then. Overall an as-expected for the mayor but I hope he breaks out next time and makes himself heard more. As always, in the interest of full disclosure I need to mention that I’ve consulted for Mayor Pete and (for whatever it’s worth) am endorsing him in this race.
6 - Former Vice President Joe Biden
You’ve really got to hand it to Joe Biden. He walked onto that stage after weeks of being in the news at the heart of the impeachment inquiry. Despite that he ended his night encouraging Americans to hold their heads high. He met his usual quota for gaffs but for the most part sparred well and landed some decent answers. His numbers have held steady at 28% in most polls and I wouldn’t expect that to change much outside the margin of error. The next debate will be a big test for him.
7 - Sen Amy Klobuchar
Senator Klobuchar is one of the few moderates left in the race and had her best debate performance to date. She had some really solid moments challenging Senator Warren and managed to do it without being as overtly aggressive as others. Sadly while above average for her it was largely below the level of her top tier competitors. She also made a joke at the end of her answer on opioids I thought was in poor taste but that’s style as much as it is substance. She hasn’t moved the needle in polls and I’m not sure tonight will change that. She has not yet qualified for the next debate but that may change as weaker candidates drop in the coming weeks.
8 - Former Congressman Beto O’Rourke
Beto entered this race in the top 5 in terms of money and name recognition. Since then he’s produced lackluster debate performances and his numbers dropped and come to a standstill. He’s made aggressive gun control a signature issue and went after Pete Buttigieg hard on the issue tonight in an exchange that many (including me) are saying he lost. He had some stronger moments notably against Senator Warren, but they were fewer than he needed. His Twitter reviews were largely mixed but pundits have said he didn’t do great. He has not yet qualified for the next debate and it’s 50/50 if he will or not. If he doesn’t look for him to go home to Texas and run for John Cornyn’s senate seat which he has an excellent chance at.
9 - Sen Kamala Harris
Man Kamala Harris had a really bad night. She had a great moment at the top talking about women’s rights but struggled to get heard throughout the rest of the debate and had a really rough moment trying to get Senator Warren to call for Twitter to suspend the President’s account that I didn’t understand at all. Senator Harris had a huge surge after the first debate but her numbers have sank back to where she started and many polls have her losing even more ground. I think her name recognition will help her stay around 4% but if she repeats this performance next time she should be very worried.
10 - Former HUD Secretary Julián Castro
Like Senator Harris, Secretary Castro had a surge after his first debate performance and has struggled ever since. He was barely a factor in tonight’s debate and I do not think he’ll qualify for the next one.
11 - Tom Steyer
Since it’s his first time here a little background. Tom Steyer is a billionaire businessman who rose to political prominence 2 years ago by running ads calling for the impeachment of the President that ran until he announced his candidacy. He entered the race shortly before the last debate but failed to make it and might have been more of a factor had he run his ads tonight instead of showing up. Through a huge media buy and leveraging his pro-impeachment org mailing lists he’s qualified for the next debate but I do not think he is long for this race.
12 - Rep Tulsi Gabbard
What the hell happened to Tulsi Gabbard tonight? First I want to add some clarity to a some statements she made during this debate. The congresswoman said that the New York Times (a host of tonight’s debate) had smeared her and some of her fellow veterans who had called for an end to the Syrian war and called her a “Russian asset and an Assad apologist”. This is untrue, she was referencing a Times article from Oct 12th questioning her strategy in the race (she had recently called it “rigged”), it also remarks that many alt-right figures and some members of the Russian news media have endorsed or spoken favorably of her, it goes on to mention her defending Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad which she was asked about at the first debate on MSNBC. She went on to reference a CNN (another host of tonight’s debate) commentator calling her a “Russian Asset. This is true but taken out of context a bit. This morning on CNN Bakari Sellers a sometimes CNN panelist who has endorsed Senator Harris, was part of a panel and made some extremely inflammatory remarks about the congresswoman (seen here) and was rebuked by his follow panelists and pressed for proof by the one of the hosts who slyly put him down and moved on after he was unable to produce any. Gabbard also pushed an theory frequently heard in alt-right circles that the US supplies Al-Qaeda forces to fight in Syria which is false. Moving on from that, her strategy tonight was to try and ask questions of her fellow candidates in a failed effort to punch up. I was shocked she made this debate and you will not see her at the next one.
And with that another Democratic debate is behind us! The next debate is November 20th on MSNBC and you can follow me at @iammikegio for live debate tweets and hilarious jokes. Thanks for reading!