We’ve finished the first democratic debate of 2020 and the final before the Iowa Caucus! It’s been a long road and a long night so let’s get to ranking.
I want to start with a rare moment of criticism for the moderators. Tonight’s debate was abysmally moderated and that’s a terrible shame because it was the most important one so far. That said here we go!
1 — Senator Elizabeth Warren
Senator Warren has seen a big slip in her numbers almost directly tied to the recent rise of Bernie Sanders. A well planned leak (I can’t confirm that but come on) from her campaign sparked a national feud with Sanders and she capitalized on it perfectly. She was the only candidate that had a really moment tonight and I think it’s safe to say she won the evening. I’m not sure this will tip Iowa for her but a slip in Bernie’s numbers could really help her.
2 — Senator Amy Klobuchar
I still think Senator Klobuchar needs a serious upgrade in debate prep. That said she had a strong performance tonight with some stand out answers on healthcare and college tuition. She needed to break out and show some real ambition tonight and I’m not sure she did that so we’ll see if this moves the needle at for her. This was her best performance yet so let’s see what happens.
3 — Vice President Joe Biden
Let me be clear here, the bar is very very low for Biden to have a good night in a debate. He was completely gaff free tonight and had a few strong and clear answers which is a style he needs to embrace more. His love affair with the answer clock needs to stop and he needs to be less focused on the past. That said this was his best debate so far and even if it doesn’t move his numbers he’s still in good shape.
4 — Senator Bernie Sanders
Yikes… just yikes. Bernie Sanders came into tonight as the leader in Iowa and knowing what the biggest line of attack on him was going to be and man did he blow it. Denying saying a woman couldn’t win the race to Senator Warren was a mistake and trying to come back scrap on the attacks she leveled was just plain stupid. Warren played hardball with him and he was not ready. He also was unusually stump speech heavy and evasive which is the worst possible look for him. If anyone could be facing a polling loss from tonight it’s him and I think it’ll happen.
5 — Mayor Pete Buttigieg
As a supporter and former consultant for the mayor this hurts me so much to write but Pete had a bad night. After a 9 point drop from his frontrunner status in Iowa Pete needed to have a big night and he just didn’t. He had many opportunities as the only veteran on stage to score big points on foreign policy and he bungled them and he failed to make himself heard as much as the other candidates. He needs a top 3 finish in Iowa to stay viable and this very well may have put that in jeopardy.
6 — Tom Steyer
Ugh ok I’m done being objective about this. Tom Steyer is not a real candidate he’s a billionaire who has spent over 100 million dollars of his own money on campaign ads since he entered the race. Since he spent most of the night talking about climate change and his love of other Americans here are some fun facts. 100 million dollars can do the following things, build about 100 wind turbines, build over 100 megawatts of solar farms, build over 1100 houses for Habitat for Humanity, or fix over 3% of the estimated wildfire damage in Australia. Take to Twitter and have some fun with those and don’t forget to use my new hashtag #TomSteyerIsAMuppet
What’s Next?
Iowa caucuses on February 3rd and may have a bigger impact on this race than any other.
The next debate will come right after in New Hampshire on February 7th right ahead of the New Hampshire Primary on the 11th.
In the meantime stay tuned to @iammikegio everywhere for an explainer on how caucuses work and if you’re from Iowa don’t forget to vote!