Tonight marks the last debate before the South Carolina Primary and Super Tuesday. It also saw an even bigger change in tone with candidates throwing out the rules and attacking each other in a huge way. It was loud, messy, and not always informative. Let’s break down the winners and losers.
1 — Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg
After a strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire Pete finished 3rd in Nevada. He needed a good night tonight and I think he delivered. While I think he could’ve respected the rules a little more (getting chastised by a moderator is never a good look) Pete has found his inner happy warrior and it’s a great look for him. He did a great job taking it to Bernie and clarifying his positions at a time when many voters are just starting to tune in. Super Tuesday is going to be a watershed moment for his campaign but he has strong fundraising and may be able to hang through a weaker than needed showing.
2 — Senator Bernie Sanders
As the undisputed frontrunner in the race Bernie was expected to take huge fire in the last debate but was largely saved by the entry of Mike Bloomberg. Tonight he was clearly in the sights of every candidate and proved he can take it. He made mistakes with his answers on Cuba and marijuana but overall had a strong showing. Sanders is closing the gap on Vice President Biden in South Carolina polling within the margin of error so we’ll see if tonight helps him out at all.
3 — Senator Amy Klobuchar
I’ve said before that Senator Klobuchar needs a better debate prep team but tonight I’m going to explain it. She did herself a favor not engaging in some of the yelling tonight and seeming like the measured adult. She also gave great policy answers as substance has never been the Senator’s problem. Her problem is style. She constantly speaks like someone who is surprised she’s talking and doesn’t know how to stop. She seems half flustered and out of breath and when she gets uncomfortable tends to pivot to lame jokes that don’t land. Look at Senator Klobuchar in an interview or at a rally versus a debate and you will see two radically different candidates and that is a huge issue for her. She needs to change it up or she will likely be out after Super Tuesday.
4— Senator Elizabeth Warren
After coming out of Nevada’s debate as the undisputed winner Senator Warren had a bit of a misstep tonight. This has become a bit of a pattern with her and it is beginning to take its toll. She decided to change it up a bit by going after her longtime ally Bernie Sanders with an intensity we hadn’t seen yet but overall she seemed off her game and struggled to land big lines and command attention. The Senator hasn’t finished above 3rd in any contest so far and South Carolina and Super Tuesday are not looking much better for her. Her fundraising is borderline so a bad day Tuesday could kick her out of the race.
5— Vice President Joe Biden
Joe Biden has been having a very rough go of it. He finished far below expectations in the first three early states and despite calling South Carolina his “firewall” is now polling within the margin of error with Senator Sanders. All that adds up to tonight being hugely important to Biden and he unsurprisingly kind of blew it. Biden is rarely called a strong debater but we saw flashes of brilliance tonight when he went on the attack about policy. Sadly those flashes were drowned out by attempts to land his own version of “I wrote the damn bill” and incessant complaining about the moderators and the rules. While I think he will stay in past Super Tuesday if the Vice President doesn’t come in first or second in South Carolina he could be in serious trouble.
6 — Tom Steyer
The entry of an even richer billionaire to the race has forced Tom Steyer to try giving substantive answers and engaging more. It works for him! He’s polling surprisingly well in South Carolina and got some decent lines in. That said he’s not shown as a serious option in any polling. While Mr Steyer can keep up his campaign indefinitely I expect him to drop out after Super Tuesday unless he makes it into the top 3 somewhere.
7— Former Mayor Mike Bloomberg
I’m so over Mike Bloomberg I almost left him off here but he’s bought himself some good polling and a rule change that gets him in the debates so fine. Mike Bloomberg has spent over $500 million on his campaign ads so far which is more than any candidate in history. He didn’t completely embarrass himself again which makes tonight a 100% improvement from his debut debate but it was an incredibly low bar and he barely met it. He’s not on a ballot until Super Tuesday and if he doesn’t make the top 3 in any state expect him to drop and possibly run for something else or take it to the president with a media buy that will break more records.